Housing Market Forecast: Why the Second Half of 2025 Could Be a Turning Point for Buyers and Sellers
After months of uncertainty, it looks like the housing market may finally be on the upswing.
In a recent update, National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasted a much-needed rebound in the second half of 2025. This is welcome news for both buyers and sellers across Florida—and especially here in the Tampa Bay real estate market.
With mortgage rates showing signs of decline and inventory levels gradually improving, now is the time to reassess your real estate goals. Whether you're thinking about making a move, investing, or just watching from the sidelines, this mid-year update offers valuable insight into what’s next.
Let’s break it all down—and explore what it means for you.
Market Conditions Are Improving Nationally
According to Yun’s June 2025 forecast, housing market activity is set to pick up in the latter half of the year. A combination of slightly lower mortgage rates, steady job growth, and increased consumer confidence is expected to drive more transactions nationwide.
Here are a few key takeaways from the NAR outlook:
Home sales volume is expected to rise through the end of 2025 and into 2026.
Mortgage rates are trending downward, with the average rate expected to stay below 7%.
Home prices remain stable or slightly increasing in most markets due to continued demand.
So what does that mean for Tampa Bay? Let’s zoom in on the local picture.
The Tampa Bay Market: Local Dynamics at Play
Tampa Bay has always been one of the most dynamic housing markets in Florida, thanks to its growing population, job opportunities, and coastal lifestyle. And even during periods of national slowdown, the local market has remained relatively resilient.
But now, we're beginning to see conditions shift again—and that’s creating new opportunities.
For Buyers:
Inventory is starting to improve, offering more choices than we’ve seen in over a year.
Price growth has moderated, making it a good time to shop before competition ramps up.
Sellers are more negotiable than they were during the peak of the frenzy—especially on inspection repairs, closing costs, or interest rate buy-downs.
For Sellers:
Buyer activity is returning, especially from out-of-state movers and early retirees.
Well-priced, move-in-ready homes are still selling quickly and often receive multiple offers.
Your equity is still strong, especially if you bought before 2020—now may be the perfect time to cash in.
Mortgage Rates May Be Easing—But Don’t Wait Too Long
One of the biggest factors impacting buyer behavior has been mortgage interest rates. Rates climbed rapidly in 2022 and 2023, pricing many buyers out of the market and causing hesitation across the board.
But in 2025, we’re starting to see some relief. According to Yun, mortgage rates have likely peaked, and we can expect modest declines as inflation stabilizes and the Federal Reserve softens its stance.
Lower rates mean more affordable monthly payments, increased purchasing power, and better financing options—all of which make now an excellent time to lock in a purchase.
Pro Tip: Waiting for rates to drop further may backfire, because more buyers re-entering the market could quickly drive prices back up.
New Construction Is Boosting Inventory—but Not Equally
You may have heard that more new homes are coming to market—and that’s true, to an extent. Builders have picked up activity in 2024 and 2025, helping to ease the inventory crunch.
However, not all inventory is created equal.
Most new homes are being built in suburban areas like Riverview, Wesley Chapel, and Palmetto.
Many are priced above the median and may not meet the needs of first-time buyers or downsizers.
Older, established neighborhoods in South Tampa, St. Pete, and Seminole still have very limited resale inventory.
This is where working with a local expert comes in. As someone who knows the Tampa Bay market block by block, I can help you identify hidden gems, off-market listings, and upcoming opportunities before the rest of the market catches on.
Should You Sell in 2025?
If you’ve been thinking about selling but were unsure if the timing was right—this could be your moment.
With more buyers coming back into the market and consumer confidence rising, homes that are clean, updated, and priced correctly are moving fast. Especially in Tampa Bay, where demand continues to outpace supply in many areas.
Here’s how to position yourself for success:
Price it right from the start—don’t chase the market down or up.
Stage and prep the home professionally to appeal to a broad range of buyers.
Highlight unique lifestyle benefits, such as proximity to beaches, top schools, or walkable neighborhoods.
And remember: As a seller, you may also be a buyer. With interest rates stabilizing and more listings coming available, your trade-up or relocation may now be more realistic than it was last year.
Advice for Buyers: It’s Time to Re-Engage
Buyers who pressed pause in 2023 or early 2024 due to rates or affordability should consider re-engaging now.
Here’s how to make the most of the current window:
Get pre-approved—know your buying power before rates or prices shift again.
Be ready to act fast, especially on well-priced homes in desirable areas.
Work with a full-time local agent (like me!) who knows how to navigate both competitive and shifting markets.
The good news? You may find more choices, more negotiating room, and fewer bidding wars than in years past—especially if you're shopping this summer or early fall.
Final Thoughts: Local Expertise Matters More Than Ever
With the market showing signs of strength and stability, the second half of 2025 presents real opportunities for Tampa Bay buyers and sellers alike.
But navigating today’s market takes more than watching headlines. It requires local insight, strategic planning, and expert representation—and that’s where I come in.
I’m Sean Tennant, your Tampa Bay real estate expert. Whether you're looking to buy, sell, invest, or just want to understand how these national trends impact your neighborhood, I’m here to help you make confident, informed decisions.
Let’s Talk About Your Goals
📞 Call or text: 727-251-4106
📧 Email: Sean@TampaBayRealtorSean.com
🌐 Visit: www.TampaBayRealtorSean.com
The real estate market is picking up—don’t miss your opportunity to move while others are still watching.
Let’s make your next move a smart one.
