Tampa Bay Real Estate Market Update – April 2025 Trends & Predictions

Jun 4

As of April 2025, the U.S. housing market has seen a significant shift, with pending home sales dropping 6.3% nationwide according to the latest data from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). But what does this mean for the Tampa Bay real estate market specifically? As a local Realtor with boots on the ground, I’m breaking down the national trends and what we’re experiencing locally—so you can make smarter decisions whether you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market.

📉 What’s Happening Nationally?

Pending home sales serve as a key indicator of market activity, measuring the number of homes that went under contract but haven’t closed yet. In April, the national Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell 6.3% month-over-month to 71.3, and it’s down 2.5% compared to April 2024. All four regions in the U.S. saw a drop in activity, with the South—which includes Florida—seeing a notable 7.7% decrease.

Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributes this cooling to persistently high mortgage rates. While inventory has improved in many areas, the cost of borrowing remains a significant barrier for would-be homebuyers.

🏠 Tampa Bay Snapshot

In Tampa Bay, the story is a little more nuanced. Inventory is indeed rising—we're seeing more homes hit the market than we’ve seen in the past five years. But like the national trend, buyer activity has slowed somewhat due to elevated interest rates, which are hovering near 7% as of late May.

Despite fewer pending contracts, prices in many parts of Tampa Bay remain resilient due to continued demand from out-of-state buyers, especially those relocating from higher-cost cities like New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. Homes that are priced right and in desirable neighborhoods like St. Petersburg, Seminole, and South Tampa are still seeing strong interest.

📦 Inventory is Up—Why That’s Good News for Buyers

For the first time in years, buyers in Tampa Bay have options. In many neighborhoods, inventory is up 20–30% year-over-year. This means less competition, more negotiating power, and in some cases, seller concessions like rate buy-downs, closing cost assistance, or home warranties.

This shift is especially helpful for first-time buyers, many of whom were priced out during the bidding wars of 2020–2022. While rates are higher, the ability to take your time, negotiate, and even re-finance later makes 2025 a surprisingly strong year to buy—if you’re financially prepared.

📊 What Sellers Need to Know

If you're thinking of selling in Tampa Bay, don’t panic over the national headlines. The right pricing strategy and preparation still matter more than ever. Homes that are outdated or overpriced are sitting longer. On the flip side, well-prepped homes that are accurately priced are still going under contract quickly—often within the first two weeks.

We’re also seeing renewed interest in more affordable homes and those that offer income potential (think ADUs, duplexes, or homes with in-law suites). Highlighting these features in your listing can give you a competitive edge.

🔁 What Comes Next?

Looking ahead, most economists—including those at NAR—agree that mortgage rates will be the key driver of market movement this year. If rates drop below 6.5%, expect a surge in activity as more buyers jump back into the market. But even if rates stay higher, the continued rise in inventory could balance things out for buyers and sellers alike.

In Tampa Bay, keep an eye on:

Price reductions: More common now than during the pandemic years
Days on market: Increasing slightly, giving buyers breathing room
Off-market deals: Growing as sellers test the waters privately before going live

🤝 Final Thoughts

Whether you’re buying or selling, now is the time for strategy—not guesswork. The Tampa Bay real estate market isn’t crashing, but it is evolving. Having a local expert on your side who understands both the macro trends and neighborhood-level shifts is essential.

If you're curious about your home's value or want to explore buying opportunities before the market heats up again, I’m here to help.

Sean Tennant, Realtor
Charles Rutenberg Realty
727-251-4106 | Sean@TampaBayRealtorSean.com
www.TampaBayRealtorSean.com